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Back in 2018, it took just eight words to energize a Labour conference and to show Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. While not exactly soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position and Closed Issues

In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite survey data suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. While Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, a lid which was tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.

David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. A proposal involves announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism

However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that a return to a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. First, he thinks any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, including the environment.
2. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain than in proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy & Strategic Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It includes only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from concluding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Echo of 2018

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt to become leader but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Danger and A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.