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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."